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Risk Management

Moreover, the CoBRA® model helped our customer to evaluate the risk (probability) a certain fixed-bid project has of exceeding the planned budget (scenario A), as well as to plan a realistic budget that will have a reasonably low risk of being exceeded (scenario B). In the Figure, you can see that the initially fixed budget of Project X was planned as 90,000 dollars (scenario A). According to the estimation model, there is a very high probability (90%) of exceeding that amount.

The project manager specified the risk limit at the level of 0.2. In that case, a reasonable budget of the project should be about 122,000 dollars.

Effort estimation and risk analysis with CoBRA®

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